Installing heat pumps in just 7% of European households—approximately 14 million homes—could eliminate the EU’s need for Russian gas used in space and water heating, according to new data released by the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA).
As of the end of 2024, there are around 26 million domestic heat pumps in operation across Europe. Reaching 14 million additional installations would represent a 55% increase. According to EHPA, heat pumps in use today have already avoided the consumption of 24 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas. A further 14 million units would save an additional 13 bcm—roughly equivalent to the gas the EU imports from Russia specifically for domestic heating.
Heat pumps can be up to five times more energy efficient than gas boilers, as they primarily use electricity rather than directly burning fuel. As a result, their indirect gas use is minimal, limited only to the share of fossil fuels in a country’s electricity mix. The European Commission estimates that widespread adoption of heat pumps, combined with improved home energy efficiency, could save the EU €60 billion by 2030 through reduced fossil fuel imports.
EHPA shared these figures as part of a policy leaflet released during a breakfast debate held at the European Parliament and hosted by MEP Thomas Pellerin-Carlin. The event focused on strengthening energy security through electrification of heating.
Paul Kenny, Director General of EHPA, stated: “Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels puts citizens at the mercy of unreliable suppliers and erratic prices. We must shift to strategic energy security via sustainable, secure, efficient, home-grown heating solutions. A clear Europe-level strategy to accelerate heat pump deployment is needed, alongside electricity pricing that makes heat pumps the most competitive option.”
Currently, imported Russian gas accounts for 19% of the EU’s total gas imports, or 51.7 bcm. Around 24.8% of that—12.8 bcm—is estimated to be used for residential space and water heating. EHPA says nearly 72 million more heat pumps would be required to fully replace this demand, a 180% increase from current levels.
The EU’s target is to reach 60 million installed heat pumps by 2030. EHPA emphasizes that stability in regulation and policy implementation will be critical to achieving this, particularly in the context of the EU Green Deal and the upcoming Emissions Trading System 2. The ETS2 is expected to generate up to €65 billion through the Social Climate Fund to support deployment of clean technologies, including heat pumps.
The sector currently supports over 416,000 direct and indirect jobs across more than 300 manufacturing sites in Europe. EHPA highlights that further scaling would not only enhance energy resilience but also drive European industrial competitiveness.
An international Summit on the Future of Energy Security, co-hosted by the IEA and the UK government, will take place in London on 24–25 April 2025. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to attend.
Daniel Wetzel, Head of the Tracking Sustainable Transitions Unit at the International Energy Agency, added: “In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency issued a 10-point plan for the EU to reduce its natural gas dependence, where we highlighted heat pumps could reduce gas demand by 7 bcm by 2025. The EU has successfully lowered their natural gas imports by around 60 bcm against 2021 levels, and based on IEA’s latest assessment, reduced demand from heat pumps installed represent as much as 10% of this total.”