U.S. HVAC equipment shipments fall in May, heat pumps show growth

U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled 862,129 units in May 2025, a decrease of 5.4% compared to 911,517 units in May 2024, according to data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

Air conditioner shipments dropped by 13.0%, falling to 474,519 units from 545,636 units the previous year. In contrast, shipments of air-source heat pumps rose by 5.9%, reaching 387,610 units compared to 365,881 units in May 2024.

For the year to date through May, combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps increased by 2.8% to 3,736,372 units, up from 3,635,714 units during the same period in 2024. Central air conditioner shipments declined by 2.3% to 2,022,984 units, while heat pump shipments rose by 9.5% to 1,713,388 units.

By capacity, the largest year-on-year growth in May 2025 was seen in units under 16.5 (000) BTUH, up by 26.8%, and in the 800.0–899.9 (000) BTUH range, which doubled compared to May 2024. Meanwhile, shipments of units in the 16.5–21.9 (000) BTUH category dropped significantly by 39.3%.

Year-to-date figures showed a 25.0% rise in shipments of units under 16.5 (000) BTUH and an 11.9% increase in the 33–38.9 (000) BTUH category. However, notable declines occurred in the 16.5–21.9 (000) BTUH range, down by 21.5%, and other larger-capacity categories.

AHRI compiles and reports these monthly data based on submissions from its HVAC manufacturing members across the United States.

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