At the Heat Pump Technologies event, Assoclima presented the results of its 2024 statistical survey on the Italian market for air conditioning system components. The study, involving 48 companies, showed that the total domestic market exceeded €2.5 billion (approx. USD 2.7 billion), marking a 5% decline compared to the previous year. In contrast, domestic production surpassed €1.18 billion (approx. USD 1.28 billion), registering a 3.4% increase over 2023.
Market trends: Direct expansion segment grows, hydronic sector shows mixed results
The direct expansion segment, which accounts for more than 60% of Italian market revenue, closed 2024 with positive results in both volume and value across all product categories. Sales of monosplit air conditioners rose by 10% in volume and 3% in value, multisplit units increased by 13% and 4%, and VRF systems grew by 8% and 5%. Rooftop air conditioners also recorded double-digit growth, with a 12% increase in volume and 13% in value compared to 2023.
Close control air conditioners declined by 6% in volume and 2% in value. Monoblock and portable air conditioners also dropped, down 8% in volume and 13% in value.
The hydronic segment showed contrasting trends, largely driven by power output. Air-to-water heat pumps with outputs above 100 kW showed continued growth: +17% in volume and +8% in value for 101–200 kW units, and +37% and +23% for 201–350 kW units. Conversely, units below 100 kW experienced significant declines. Units under 10 kW dropped by 21% in volume and 26% in value, while 11–17 kW units fell by 31% and 37%.
Hybrid systems - defined as electric heat pumps combined with condensing boilers, tracked in cooperation with Assotermica - recorded one of the sharpest drops: -66% in volume and -69% in value. Domestic hot water heat pumps also decreased by 21% in volume and 26% in value.
Positive results were seen for water-cooled chillers and water-to-water heat pumps, which grew by 7% in volume, although value declined slightly by 5.3%.
The downturn in the hydronic segment affected terminal units (fan coils, cassettes, hi-wall units), which saw a 9% decrease in volume and 7% in value. Residential mechanical ventilation also declined: -14% in volume and -15% in value.
However, air handling units showed signs of recovery, with growth of 10% in volume and 11% in value.
Assoclima President's remarks
According to Maurizio Marchesini, President of Assoclima: “In 2024, the commercial sector benefited from the PNRR, whose positive effects will continue into 2025. In contrast, the residential sector recorded one of the worst performances, largely due to the speculative bubble of 2022 driven by economic and geopolitical factors, and amplified in Italy by the 110% Superbonus. This led to a sharp decline in heat pump sales in 2023 and 2024, also due to stockpiles across the supply chain. Despite the 2024 decline, 40% of companies in the sector still plan to increase production capacity by over 30% by 2027.”
Marchesini also noted that heat pumps are set to become the standard for building heating and cooling, but this requires consistent and clear policies. “The energy transition must continue without uncertainty, and the sector needs clear guidance on investment and incentives. This is not about banning certain technologies, but about ensuring that available resources are effectively allocated to also support Italian and European production.”