A significant slowing trend in the rate of growth of the regulated bank of refrigerants in Australia for the period from 2016 to 2019 to just 1.8% compound annual growth in metric tonnes, as reported in Cold Hard Facts 2019, has been confirmed in 2020 with no significant growth in the bank at all in the period, despite surprisingly strong equipment sales.
The confirmation of this trend flattening combined with increasing use of lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, indicates that the GWP value of the Australian bank of refrigerants reached its peak in 2019-20. Current modelling projects a steady decline in the years ahead as the combination of several trends in the refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC) industry accelerates a reduction in the average GWP of the bank.
Zero growth of the refrigerant bank has been driven in part by a softening of RAC equipment sales in 2018 and 2019 across nearly all major equipment segments, in line with softer economic conditions. Growth in the bank of refrigerants has also been curtailed by new equipment designs and new generations of lower GWP refrigerants that require smaller charge sizes to deliver equivalent refrigeration services.
Adoption of natural refrigerants in some segments, particularly in self-contained commercial refrigeration, is displacing traditional hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) applications - even while the stock of equipment is growing.
A leading example of this trend to reducing the GWP of the refrigerant bank is HFC 32, which has now overtaken HFC-410A in pre-charged equipment imports for the first time and which has grown by 30% in 2020 based on metric tonnes, compared to the previous year.