There are nearly 20 million heat pumps installed in Europe and deployment is proceeding apace, with sales of 3 million units in 2022. However, there are a number of barriers that might slow the rate of growth in the short term, including installer shortages, volatile metals prices, and disruptions to the supply of components such as semiconductors or permanent magnets.
Heat pump manufacturing in the EU is well positioned to capture a large share of the increase in demand, and might benefit from market and regulatory trends towards reduced environmental impacts. However, the trade deficit more than doubled to 856 million in 2022 compared to 2021, from a surplus of EUR 186 million five years earlier. Nevertheless, rapid deployment will entail increased EU manufacturing of heat pumps and components. Significant investments are already being made, totalling at least EUR 5 billion between 2020 and 2030.
Heat pumps are a mature technology but innovation continues, notably to improve efficiency and reduce upfront cost. The EU is a technology leader, especially in hydronic heat pumps and large heat pumps. This is reflected in patenting trends, scientific publications, and public RD&I funding.
This report is an output of the Clean Energy Technology Observatory, which is being implemented by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre on behalf of its DG Research and Innovation, in co-ordination with DG Energy.
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