The North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council said its late-2025 survey of 18 food retailers, representing more than 29,000 U.S. grocery, supermarket, convenience and pharmacy locations, points to a continued shift away from HFCs toward lower-GWP refrigerants through 2029. In NASRC’s projection, HFC/HCFC direct-expansion stores fall to about 48% of the fleet from roughly 80% in the base, while HFO blend stores reach around 21% and CO2 transcritical stores 19%.
The report says existing fleets are still dominated by legacy systems, with 78% of current stores using HCFC/HFC systems, 10% using HFO blends, 5% using CO2 transcritical systems and 3% using glycol systems. Retailers also reported portfolio refrigerant use that included HFCs at 100% of respondents, HFO blends above 300 GWP at 94%, CO2 at 89% and HCFCs such as R22 at 67%.
Participants collectively reported plans for more than 2,000 new stores between 2025 and 2029, with CO2 transcritical identified as the dominant architecture for those sites. Retailers also said they plan to replace about 13,400 systems by 2029, with the largest replacement category shifting to pumped medium-temperature glycol and CO2 secondary systems, while CO2 remote condensing units were described mainly as add-ons to existing stores and are projected to exceed 8,200 cumulative new installations by 2029.
Regionally, NASRC projects the Southeast to account for 6,315 CO2 transcritical systems by 2029, or 47% of the total shown in the report’s regional breakdown. Respondents ranked regulatory requirements, refrigerant cost and availability, and future regulation risk as the main drivers for considering CO2 systems, while the lack of trained technicians was identified as the leading barrier to transition.