The downturn has already impacted the sector’s workforce, with job losses affecting around 3,000 employees. If current sales levels persist, Europe will install only 45 million heat pumps by 2030, falling short of the EU’s target of 60 million by 15 million units.
EHPA attributes the decline to policy instability and energy price imbalances. The association noted that changes to support schemes, such as Italy’s reduced incentives, weakened consumer confidence. Conversely, countries like the Netherlands have seen growth due to stable policies.
“Stable policy support and ensuring electricity is less than twice the price of gas are crucial to turn each heat pump into a great investment. This will boost sales,” said Paul Kenny, EHPA’s Director General.
Data from the first half of 2024 indicates a worsening trend. Sales in 13 European countries dropped 47% compared to the same period in 2023, with just 765,000 units sold.
EHPA highlighted the environmental impact of the installed heat pumps. The current stock helps avoid 5.5 billion cubic metres of gas annually - 1.6% of the EU’s consumption - and prevents 45 megatonnes of CO₂ emissions. Reaching the 2030 target could more than double these savings.
The report also emphasized the competitiveness of Europe’s heat pump industry, with nearly 300 production sites and about 170,000 jobs. However, continued investment depends on market confidence.
In response to the sales slowdown, EHPA has intensified advocacy efforts. It is calling for electricity tax reductions, the implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System 2, and full execution of the Fit for 55 package and the updated F-gas regulation. The association is also participating in the EU’s “Heat Pump Accelerator Platform” alongside VITO and Fraunhofer ISE to address deployment barriers.
“Our sector must be at the heart of EU decarbonisation plans,” said Kenny. “Heat pumps can reduce emissions, support grid flexibility, and increase energy independence - if supported by the right policies.”
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