AHRI said U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled 440,819 units in January 2026, down 29.2% from 622,901 units in January 2025. The data covers combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in the United States.
U.S. shipments of central air conditioners fell 39.3% to 210,862 units in January 2026, compared with 347,357 units a year earlier. Air-source heat pump shipments declined 16.5% to 229,957 units from 275,544 units in January 2025.
By equipment size, the largest shipment volumes were in the 33-38.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 9.7-11.4 kW) range at 99,046 units and the 22-26.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 6.4-7.9 kW) range at 87,060 units. Other high-volume categories included 27-32.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 7.9-9.6 kW) at 58,395 units and 44-53.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 12.9-15.8 kW) at 45,838 units.
The under-16.5 (000) BTUH (under approx. 4.8 kW) category totaled 23,155 units, down 2.8% from 2025, while the 16.5-21.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 4.8-6.4 kW) segment fell 38.5% to 42,816 units. In higher-capacity ranges, shipments reached 3,111 units in the 135-184.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 39.6-54.2 kW) category, 1,575 units in the 185-249.9 (000) BTUH (approx. 54.2-73.2 kW) category and 57 units in the 1,200.0 (000) BTUH and over (approx. 351.7 kW and over) category.