The quadrennial report of the Montreal Protocol Scientific Review Panel was published in early January 2023.
It confirms the elimination of nearly 99% of sozone-depleting substances. The report highlights the noticeable recovery of the ozone layer in the upper stratosphere, and a decrease in human exposure to harmful ultraviolet rays from the sun.
The report estimates that if current policies remain in place, the ozone layer could return to 1980 levels by around 2066 over Antarctica, around 2045 over the Arctic and by 2040 in the rest of the world.
The Scientific Assessment Panel also estimates in its report that the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol could prevent a warming of 0.3 to 0.5°C by 2100.
Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2022
Science has been one of the foundations of the Montreal Protocol’s success. This document highlights advances and updates in the
scientific understanding of ozone depletion since the 2018 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion and provides policy-relevant scientific information on current challenges and future policy choices.
This document contains information upon which the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (“The Parties”) will base their future decisions regarding protection of the stratospheric ozone layer and climate from the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their replacements.
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