ABRAVA publishes May 2025 AVACR Economic Bulletin

The Department of Economics and Statistics of ABRAVA has released the May 2025 edition of its "Termômetro AVACR" economic bulletin, authored by economist Guilherme R.C. Moreira. The document presents updated data on international trade, sector-specific indicators, and economic expectations for Brazil’s refrigeration, air conditioning, ventilation, and heating (AVACR) industries.

According to US Trade Census data accessed on April 10, 2025, Brazil’s share of US imports in 2024 across ABRAVA-related sectors remains marginal. Of the total USD 3.27 trillion in US imports, goods from China represented 13.4%, while Brazil accounted for only 1.3%. Within selected AVACR categories, Brazil’s participation ranged from 0.1% to 1.8%. For instance, in the category “Compressors used in refrigerating equipment” (SH 841430), Brazil contributed USD 51.82 million, or 1.8% of US imports. In contrast, China’s share in this segment was 10.8%.

Brazil’s exports of air conditioners and refrigeration equipment to the US also remained low. Air conditioning machines (SH 8415) totaled USD 15.07 billion in US imports, of which Brazil accounted for 0.1%. Refrigerators and freezers (SH 8418) followed a similar pattern, with Brazil supplying just USD 7.48 million, or 0.1%, of the total.

Domestically, Brazil’s retail trade showed mixed signals. According to IBGE data from April 2025, the first two months of the year offset declines from the previous quarter, leading to a 3.6% growth over 12 months. The performance was driven by higher sales of household appliances, while supermarkets showed signs of deceleration.

In the AVACR sector, SUFRAMA data indicated that split air conditioner units recorded an 18.5% increase in sales up to March 2025 compared to the same period in the previous year. The “Termômetro ABRAVA” research for Q1 2025 showed optimism in the industry, despite early-April uncertainties not yet reflected in the indicators.

Financial expectations for the sector remain high. Companies project a 14.8% increase in revenue for 2025. The first quarter already showed an 8.5% growth compared to the same period in 2024. However, the cost of inputs rose sharply by 18%, and there was a notable reduction in new orders.

“The sector remains optimistic,” the bulletin noted, “sustained by expectations, even amid a generally pessimistic view of the Brazilian economy.”

Source: Termômetro ABRAVA, May 2025 Edition, Guilherme R.C. Moreira – Economist.