BSRIA has released new Worldwide Air Conditioning and Heat Pump reports, highlighting a diverging global cooling market shaped by technology development, tighter regulation and growth in data centre cooling. The studies cover 18 key air conditioning markets and 15 heat pump markets.
The reports state that overall demand has risen 245% since 2010, while the market is splitting into two tracks: a high-value commercial sector driven by specialist applications and a high-volume residential sector where competition is suppressing prices. In 2025, average selling prices for chillers and air handling units rose by 3.6% and 4.5%, respectively, while the average price for ductless split systems declined.
BSRIA attributes residential price pressure to competition, with the top ten suppliers now accounting for more than 85% of global sales in ductless split systems. In the commercial sector, data centre demand linked to AI is supporting sales of advanced liquid cooling solutions and chillers, including oil-free centrifugal chillers in countries such as Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, the UAE and the USA.
The research also points to a shift toward inverter-based systems, particularly in emerging economies. India’s market for inverter split systems is projected to reach 100% by 2029, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia are also showing strong growth. BSRIA says this is happening alongside a legislative push to phase down low-energy-efficiency AC systems and HFCs, making low-GWP and natural refrigerants mainstream choices for new cooling systems and retrofits.
BSRIA also reports that 2025 marked the beginning of a recovery for the global heat pump market. Air conditioning systems are playing a growing role in heating installations, with reversible single-splits growing 3.3% by volume globally.
"2025 was a year of uncertainty, and in the AC market we saw rising competition with increased M&A activity driving consolidation. However, globally, the need for cooling technologies remains high, with demand jumping 245% over the past 15 years. We predict that growth will continue, though it will remain uneven amid ongoing economic and geopolitical volatility,” said Aline Breslauer, Research Manager, BSRIA AC, Refrigeration and Ventilation.
To find out more about BSRIA’s World Wide Air Conditioning 2026 report on chillers,
click here. For the report on Split Systems,
click here or for the Worldwide Heat Pump Market Report 2026,
click here.
