EU Risks Missing 2030 Climate Targets Due to Decline in Heat Pump Sales. Heat pump sales in Europe dropped by 6.5% in 2023, the first decline in ten years, according to data from the European Heat Pump Association. This drop threatens the EU's ability to meet its 2030 climate goals and harms Europe's leadership in clean tech.
In 2023, 3.02 million heat pumps were sold, raising the total to 23.96 million, a 13.7% increase from 2022. However, to meet its 2030 targets, the EU needs around 45 million heat pumps installed. With current sales trends, the EU will fall short by about 25%, comparable to missing five years of sales.
“If we maintain current sales rates, we will miss out on significant investments and opportunities to reduce emissions by 70 Mt of CO2, equivalent to Romania’s annual output,” a spokesperson from the European Heat Pump Association explained. They highlighted the importance of the delayed Heat Pump Action Plan in stabilizing the sector.
The slowdown is attributed to changing policies and support schemes. For instance, stable policies in the Netherlands have boosted growth, while a major policy shift in Italy disrupted consumer confidence. Additionally, lower gas prices relative to taxed electricity prices have affected sales.
Countries with the highest growth in heat pump sales include Germany (161,000 more units, +58.5%), Belgium (+43,000, +72.2%), and the Netherlands (+50,000, +43.4%). Conversely, Italy saw a sharp decline (298,000 fewer units, -44.1%), along with Finland (-78,000, -41.9%) and Poland (-78,000, -38.8%).
In terms of heat pump stock per 1,000 households, Norway leads with 635 units, followed by Finland (512) and Sweden (438). At the bottom are Hungary (12), the UK (15), and Slovakia (30).
The European heat pump sector currently supports approximately 170,000 direct jobs, with significant growth potential. Over the past 20 years, heat pumps in Europe have prevented 58.4 Mt of CO2 emissions, including 7.3 Mt last year.
*Data sourced from the
European Heat Pump Association.
