BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence published the latest of its annual studies on the HVAC and Smart markets at the end of March. At the time of the publication the extent of the pandemic was far from clear and even less so the impact it would have on the markets.
As markets revive, they face challenges resulting from the COVID-19 societal and economic impact. BSRIA is undertaking regular surveys with key industry stakeholders to keep its clients and members informed on the changes.
Our July survey was completed by 68 companies and we have aggregated the responses to present some interesting key findings.
We would like to take the opportunity to thank all companies who participated in our survey.
Participants were presented with questions and a choice of answers to rate from 1 to 5, with 1 being the easiest and 5 the most difficult to tackle. They also had opportunity to add free responses, rather than just selecting pre-defined answers. Participants to our survey are all stakeholders of the HVAC and Controls manufacturing market, located around the world.
It is interesting to note that although the timing of the pandemic has been slightly different in different world regions, and governments’ responses to the crisis have varied among countries, companies across the globe share the same concerns in terms of implications that the pandemic has triggered.
Similarly, the assessment of the impact the pandemic will have on the markets’ sales performance, although slightly different in different world regions, stays within a similar range.
Participants were asked to assess the impact on sales of HVAC products and Buildings Controls in 2020 and 2021. Respondents did not expect the sales impact to exceed 10% in 2020. They were however nearly unanimous in foreseeing two years of negative growth, with 2021 posting a sales decline between 1% and 2%.
The general aggregated view was that Europe will suffer the most in 2020, with markets down by close to 10% in comparison to 2019 sales levels. 2021 is expected to bring negative growth too, with sales some 1 to 2% lower than the year before.
China is expecting a sales decline just below 9% in 2020 and offers a more pessimistic view on market performance in 2021, with sales expected to be lower by over 2% in comparison to the year before.
North America is expected to see a fall in sales of around 7.5% in 2020 and the second year of negative growth in 2021, with sales falling again by some 1%.
Other regions were less affected in the first half of the year according to responses. We will be monitoring the trend there in the second half of the year.
The wave of COVID-19 experienced between January and June has clearly caused damage that goes deeper than just an inability to operate and sell during lockdowns. Adjustments on manufacturing, distribution and consumer side are likely to take some time, impacting sales negatively for two years in a row.