Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) launched Chilling Prospects 2026 on 27 August in partnership with the UNEP Cool Coalition, highlighting links between extreme heat, mortality and unequal access to cooling. Across 77 heat-exposed countries, the assessment estimates that 339 million rural poor and 746 million urban poor are at high risk of lacking adequate cooling, while 2.43 billion lower-middle-income people face medium risk.
The report identifies 12 countries that rank among both the 20 with the highest current heat-death rates and the 20 facing the largest projected increases in heat mortality. Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, Mali, Niger, Pakistan and Sudan are among countries facing a combination of rising heat mortality, low projected air-conditioning ownership and persistent electricity access gaps. “There is an urgent case to invest in electricity access and reliable electricity infrastructure today to build resilience and protect people in the long term,” said Giorgia Pasqualetto, Senior Specialist, Energy Efficiency and Cooling at SEforALL.
During the launch discussion, experts highlighted passive design, low-energy cooling, efficient air conditioning and community-led approaches. Siraz Hirani, Director Programs at Mahila Housing Trust, cited a cool bus stop in Ahmedabad that is 5–6°C cooler and serves more than 600,000 commuters, and a net-zero cooling station in Jodhpur that has sheltered more than 18,000 people and achieved an average temperature reduction of 7.7°C. The Jodhpur pilot subsequently informed national cooling-centre guidelines and state-level budget allocations in India.
Toby Pear, Associate Architect at Article 25, discussed passive cooling through building orientation, local laterite stone, thermal mass and climate-responsive roof design. Alternative roof forms tested in the Sahel have demonstrated indoor temperature reductions of up to 8°C, while ongoing work is examining construction costs and potential replication.
IEA Energy Policy Analyst Fabian Voswinkel said global electricity demand for space cooling has grown by 50% since 2015 to around 2,900 TWh. He also noted unequal access to efficient equipment in some sub-Saharan African markets. “The efficient equipment isn’t even being shipped to these countries. So these people wouldn’t have the access even if they wanted to,” Voswinkel said.
SEforALL also highlighted its Global Cooling Access Dashboard, which tracks cooling-access risk and trends across 77 countries, and the This Is Cool Solutions Directory. UNEP Cool Coalition introduced the GEF-supported Nature for Cooling Challenge, implemented with SEforALL, with initial implementation in Brazil, Cambodia and Côte d’Ivoire.
