Germany’s refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump sector remains economically stable in 2026, according to the latest business survey from the German Association of Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Contractors (VDKF). Some 68% of surveyed companies rate their current business situation as good or very good, while 5% describe it as poor.
The average order backlog increased from 11 weeks in the previous year’s survey to 13 weeks. Commercial customers account for 35% of orders, followed by industry at 28%, private customers at 25% and the public sector at 12%. Around 39% of respondents say skilled-labor shortages are restricting their business operations.
Heat pumps for residential applications remain a business area for refrigeration contractors, with 38% of surveyed companies currently installing them for private customers and another 7% planning to enter the segment. Installation and maintenance of air conditioning systems remains the largest area of activity among respondents, followed by commercial refrigeration.
VDKF expects previously largely stable refrigerant prices to rise significantly in the coming months, citing the progressive reduction in F-gas availability and tighter quota rules. The survey found that 52% of specialist contractors consider themselves capable of installing and servicing propane systems, compared with 38% for CO2 systems and 10% for ammonia systems. VDKF said refrigerant recovery and reclamation are becoming increasingly important for securing long-term material availability.
Business succession is another challenge identified by the survey. Among refrigeration and air conditioning contractors, 28% expect a business transfer within the next five years. Of these, 46% anticipate a sale to an external successor and 44% expect an internal succession.
