The global HVAC market is projected to grow from USD 215 billion in 2025 to USD 292.20 billion by 2031, according to the Global HVAC Market Research Report 2026-2031 added to ResearchAndMarkets.com. The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 5.25%, supported by commercial construction, infrastructure modernization, building renovation, decarbonization policies and investment in energy-efficient HVAC systems.
Air conditioning represented approximately 45% of global HVAC revenue in 2025, with centralized systems holding the largest share of the category. Heat pumps generated around 40% of heating equipment revenue, while air handling units accounted for more than 38% of the ventilation equipment market. The commercial end-user segment is forecast to grow fastest, at a CAGR of 6.13% through 2031.
The report identifies modular and decentralized HVAC systems and variable refrigerant flow systems among technologies gaining momentum. In 2025, Daikin introduced its EWYK-QZ modular air-to-water heat pump for commercial and industrial facilities, using low-global-warming-potential R-290 refrigerant. Regulations and programs cited as supporting HVAC development include the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and F-Gas Regulation, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and ASHRAE 90.1 standards, as well as electrification initiatives in China and Japan.
Asia-Pacific accounted for more than 44% of global HVAC revenue in 2025, with China the region’s largest contributor and India among its fastest-growing markets. North America was the second-largest market, led by the United States, while European demand is being supported by building refurbishment, public investment and net-zero policies.
The competitive landscape includes Lennox International, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Carrier Global, Bosch, Daikin, LG Electronics, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, Samsung, Trane Technologies and Vaillant Group. Bosch completed its approximately USD 8 billion acquisition of Johnson Controls’ residential and light commercial HVAC business on July 31, 2025, while Samsung expanded its commercial cooling position through the approximately USD 1.7 billion acquisition of FlaktGroup.
