The deadline that supermarkets faced to install new refrigeration systems running on low-GWP refrigerants was January 1, 2027. It is now January 1, 2032. On May 21, 2026, alongside President Trump in the Oval Office, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced final revisions to the 2023 Technology Transitions Rule and a proposed technical fix to the 2024 Emissions Reduction and Reclamation Rule. EPA put the combined savings at more than $2.4 billion, including over $800 million “at the supermarket.” Within hours, HARDI countered with its own figure: the changes could add nearly $8 billion in refrigerant costs alone, and up to $13 billion across the HVACR supply chain.
The gap between those numbers is the story. This is not a fight between an industry and its regulator. It is a fight inside the industry itself, with grocery retailers on one side and equipment manufacturers, distributors, refrigerant producers, and environmental groups on the other. The Technology Transitions Rule was always going to redistribute costs across the cooling sector. The revision redistributes them again, and the parties that lose under the new arrangement are not staying quiet.
What actually changed
The 2023 Technology Transitions Rule, finalized under the AIM Act of 2020, set global warming potential (GWP) limits on the refrigerants permitted in new equipment, sector by sector, with compliance dates running from 2025 to 2028. For new supermarket systems, the limit of 150 or 300 GWP, depending on charge size and configuration, was due to take effect January 1, 2027. For new remote condensing units, the same limits applied from January 1, 2026. Cold storage warehouses faced the same thresholds from January 1, 2026.
The final revision raises those ceilings on an interim basis. New supermarket systems may use refrigerants up to 1,400 GWP from January 1, 2027. New remote condensing units may use up to 1,400 GWP starting 60 days after the rule is published in the Federal Register. New cold storage equipment may use up to 700 GWP, also starting 60 days after publication. In all three cases the original 150 or 300 GWP limits return on January 1, 2032, a delay of five to six years against the schedule the industry had been planning around. The rule also lets supermarkets increase the cooling capacity of an existing system by up to 15 percent without that work being treated as the installation of a new system, which would trigger the stricter limits.
On the air conditioning side, the revision removes the January 1, 2026, installation deadline for residential and light commercial AC and heat pump systems using refrigerants above 700 GWP, such as R-410A, provided the equipment was manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025. Contractors and distributors can now install that pre-2025 inventory until it runs out, rather than stopping at the start of the year.
The second action is still only a proposal. EPA wants to exempt all road refrigerant transport appliances from the HFC leak repair requirements set by the 2024 ER&R Rule, which apply to appliances holding at least 15 pounds (about 6.8 kg) of HFC refrigerant. EPA estimates up to $1.5 billion in savings for transporters of refrigerated goods if the exemption is finalized, and has said it will reconsider the rest of the ER&R Rule later. The third pillar of the AIM Act, the phasedown of HFC production and imports, is unchanged.
The case for the delay
EPA framed the revision as a cost-of-living measure. The agency argued that the original compliance dates gave businesses too little time and too few refrigerant options, and that full implementation would have left grocery stores unable to afford cold-storage equipment, stalled semiconductor manufacturing, and left families without working AC in summer. EPA put the savings from the Technology Transitions revision alone at over $900 million, said the changes safeguard more than 350,000 high-skilled American jobs, and stated that thin grocery margins mean the savings should pass directly to consumers.
The grocery sector’s two main trade associations welcomed the move. FMI, the Food Industry Association, which had sued over the original rule, said the revision lifts unnecessary financial burdens on the food industry and grocery shoppers and gives retailers more time to manage labor and supply chain constraints when upgrading systems. The National Grocers Association said smaller grocers faced billions of dollars in refrigeration costs under the previous deadline. At the White House event, executives from Kroger, Piggly Wiggly, and an independent Georgia grocer backed the change. Kroger CEO Greg Foran argued that an orderly equipment transition lowers both capital and operating costs, money that retailers can put toward lower prices. A multi-store Piggly Wiggly operator said the costs under the original rule would have forced price increases and pushed independents out of business.
The argument rests on timing and capital cost. For a grocery operator, replacing a parallel rack system or a remote condensing unit is a major investment, and the original schedule compressed those investments into a narrow window with a limited menu of approved refrigerants.
The case against it
The opposition does not dispute that new equipment is expensive. It disputes the economics of delay, and it comes from the part of the industry that builds and distributes the equipment and the refrigerants.
The central argument is about supply and demand. The AIM Act’s HFC production and import phasedown is still in force: a 40 percent cut through 2028, then deeper cuts in 2029 and 2036. The Technology Transitions Rule was the demand-side counterpart; by moving new equipment to low-GWP refrigerants, it pulled HFC demand down in step with shrinking supply. Extend the deadlines, the critics say, and demand for high-GWP HFCs stays elevated while the legal supply keeps falling. The predictable result is higher prices, not lower ones.
“This rule works against basic supply and demand,” said Stephen Yurek, President and CEO of AHRI. By extending the compliance deadline, he argued, EPA keeps demand for existing refrigerants high while supply continues to fall under the AIM Act, so prices are likely to rise, raising service costs and consumer costs. AHRI and the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy also stressed a point often lost in the debate: the rule never applied to existing equipment. Supermarkets could always keep using and servicing the systems they already own. The restrictions applied only to new equipment. Yurek said EPA has produced no analysis showing that delaying the dates will lower costs for consumers.
Both groups also raised the question of stranded investment. Over several years, US manufacturers redesigned products, retooled factories, certified new equipment, expanded domestic production, and trained workers to meet the original dates. “American manufacturers did what Congress and the first Trump Administration asked them to do,” said John Hurst, Executive Director of the Alliance. “They invested in new equipment, new refrigerants, new production lines, and American workers. The Administration has now changed course in a way that weakens those investments.”
HARDI, which represents HVACR distributors, was blunter. CEO Talbot Gee called the outcome deeply disappointing and said the final rule appears to reflect the preferences of a narrow segment of the food retail sector over the well-being of the most-affected HVACR businesses and their customers. HARDI’s estimate, nearly $8 billion in added refrigerant costs and $13 billion across the supply chain, reaches contractors, distributors, building owners, manufacturers, and consumers, not just supermarkets. The group’s position is notable because it is not opposed to the transition. HARDI supported the repeal of the residential installation deadline, and Gee said the HVACR industry was preparing for the broader transition even before the AIM Act was signed in 2020.
The environmental critique came from EIA US. Climate Campaign Director Avipsa Mahapatra called the decision a reckless step backward for climate action, public health, and economic certainty, and argued that rolling back timelines creates needless uncertainty for businesses that have already invested billions in innovation, manufacturing, and workforce training. EIA also pointed to a structural problem with HFC equipment that the cost debate tends to skip: by its findings, the average US supermarket using HFCs leaks as much as 25 percent of its refrigerant each year, citing EPA data. Julius Banks, EIA US Senior Technical Lead and a former EPA Chief of the GHG Reporting Program, said retail refrigeration manufacturers have invested in climate-friendly technologies that deliver 10 to 20 percent improvements in energy efficiency, savings that reduce operating costs otherwise passed to consumers.
Refrigerant producers sit in the same camp. US companies including Chemours and Honeywell developed and manufacture the low-GWP alternatives sold domestically and abroad; a delay in demand for those products undercuts the firms that invested earliest. Chemours and AHRI had both petitioned EPA on related implementation issues. The Natural Resources Defense Council, which had supported the original rule, framed the revision as rewarding the companies that delayed and penalizing those that moved early; it also warned that the change leaves the US less competitive in the global market for low-GWP refrigerants and equipment now developing under the Kigali Amendment.
Is the market actually unready?
EPA’s justification leans on the premise that low-GWP alternatives were not available or practical in time. The opposition rejects that premise, and the evidence is uneven for EPA’s side.
In air conditioning, AHRI and the Alliance say next-generation refrigerants are widely available and approved, and that over 90 percent of new residential and light commercial equipment already uses them. In cold storage, ammonia, a refrigerant with no global warming potential, has been used for decades with established safety practice, and most US cold storage warehouses already run on it. In retail food refrigeration, transcritical CO2 systems are in service across large grocery chains. EIA pointed to nearly 1,000 HFC-free ALDI stores in the US, a chain that also ranks among the lowest-priced grocers, a direct counter to the claim that low-GWP refrigeration forces prices up.
The picture is not uniform. The food retail sector did raise genuine concerns about the number and type of approved substitutes for supermarket and remote condensing systems by the original dates, and about local building codes that can block A2L refrigerants even where a state permits them. That is the gap the interim 1,400 GWP threshold is meant to bridge. But “the market needs more time” is a narrower claim than “the market is not ready,” and for several major subsectors the second claim is hard to sustain.
What happens next
The Technology Transitions revision takes effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. The ER&R exemption for road transport appliances is only a proposal and will go through a comment period before any final action, and EPA has signaled it will reopen the rest of the ER&R Rule.
Three things are worth watching. First, litigation: the original rule drew lawsuits, and a revision that several trade groups and environmental organizations consider economically and legally flawed is likely to draw more. Second, the supply-and-demand question is now an empirical one: if HFC refrigerant prices rise through 2027 and beyond while the production phasedown continues, the critics’ core prediction will be testable in the market. Third, state regulation does not pause. Several states, including California, have their own restrictions, and grocers operating nationally will still face stricter requirements in those markets regardless of the federal timeline.
The revision gives one part of the industry more time. Whether it gives the industry as a whole lower costs is the question EPA has not answered with analysis, and the question the next few years of refrigerant pricing will answer on their own.
Sources
- US EPA, “EPA Cuts Biden-Era Refrigerant Rules, Saving Americans Over $2.4 Billion and Lowering Food Costs,” press release, May 21, 2026.
- US EPA, “Fact Sheet: EPA Revises Biden-Era Refrigerant Rules,” May 2026.
- US EPA, final rule revising the 2023 Technology Transitions Rule (pre-publication version) and the Federal Register filing for the Technology Transitions reconsideration.
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) and Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, “EPA Refrigerant Rule Puts U.S. Manufacturing Investment at Risk,” press release, May 21, 2026.
- Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI), “HARDI Opposes EPA Changes to Technology Transitions Rule as Costly Mistake for HVACR Industry,” press release, May 21, 2026.
- Environmental Investigation Agency US, “Climate Advocates Condemn Trump EPA Move to Prolong Super Pollutant HFCs,” press release, May 21, 2026.
- Natural Resources Defense Council, “EPA Undermines the HFC Phasedown,” expert analysis.
